Bayesian Analysis: Historical Evidence for the Resurrection

Explore how different pieces of historical evidence might update your beliefs using Bayesian reasoning. This is an educational tool for rational inquiry, not advocacy.

What is Bayesian Analysis?

Historians use Bayesian analysis to assess which explanation best fits the available evidence. It helps weigh competing theories—like legend, hallucination, or a real resurrection—not by proving anything absolutely, but by showing which is most probable given the facts. It's a way to reason clearly under uncertainty, just like we do in courtrooms, science, or everyday life.

Belief Calibration
Before examining evidence, what's your prior probability that Jesus was resurrected from the dead?
Prior Probability50%
Very Unlikely (1%)Uncertain (50%)Very Likely (99%)